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Old 07-21-2021, 06:40 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by YakRV View Post
Not to sound like a corporate shill for Escape, but the completion date revisions are the result of on-going efforts to ramp up production. I really donít think theyíre playing games here, just trying to make more trailers to make more money while demand is in the stratosphere. Letís hope they donít lose the bubble on build quality in the process.
Maybe Iím being too pessimistic on this one but they know their production rate. Unless they are making major investments in production space, equipment and staff itís not going to change drastically. Someone having a completion changed by almost a year is kind of ridiculous IMO. This gives me the perception of ETI playing games but maybe Iím wrong.
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Old 07-21-2021, 07:10 PM   #22
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Maybe Iím being too pessimistic on this one but they know their production rate. Unless they are making major investments in production space, equipment and staff itís not going to change drastically. Someone having a completion changed by almost a year is kind of ridiculous IMO. This gives me the perception of ETI playing games but maybe Iím wrong.
I've been going back and forth wondering about this too.

On one end of the spectrum you have Casita which requires a $2000 deposit and is only one year out for backorders. Yet they keep $1200 of your deposit if you cancel. That surely cuts down on people cancelling and only serious buyers put in a deposit. A lot easier to judge when to assign a pickup date.

Escape almost encourages people to buy used if one becomes available by offering the pre-owned ads on their site and refunding almost the entire deposit minus $150 fee.

On top of that you have the fact that a lot of new escape buyers already own an escape and are selling a used one before pickup. Harder for Escape to accurately judge the demand for new.

With that being said I do agree that it seems a little odd that they're pulling in the dates so much. By almost 7 months for some. I'm still giving them the benefit of the doubt that they're just being very conservative.
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Old 07-21-2021, 07:28 PM   #23
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Maybe Iím being too pessimistic on this one but they know their production rate. Unless they are making major investments in production space, equipment and staff itís not going to change drastically. Someone having a completion changed by almost a year is kind of ridiculous IMO. This gives me the perception of ETI playing games but maybe Iím wrong.

I'd say realistic and not pessimistic. I think you are far from alone in your perception.
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Old 07-21-2021, 08:18 PM   #24
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i suspect that there's a bit of all of the mentioned factors in play here, and it all got a bit out-of-hand as a result of the RV craze + ETI's efforts to figure out what they can realistically / prudently do in terms of production-rate improvement.

I might also guess (just based on what I see on this forum) that there's been a product shift of late (a higher % of the mix being the 5.0 with its own production particulars) which has perhaps added to that challenge.

If we think the huge GCD calendar shifts look crazy, imagine how crazy ETI's (directly related) expense/revenue projection plots over time must look to the folks at KV Group. ()

IF I were a guessing man, I'd guess that Karl's been under a 'bit of pressure from the head-shed' to get all of this a bit more 'plumbed up / predictable' and he's perhaps finally making some headway on that of late.

Further, I'd guess that the rate of cancellations has been higher than historic for a number of reasons mostly related to the fickle nature of the market craze (facilitated by ETI's relatively cancellation-friendly policies to date). That's a ticklish one to balance, IMO, one might imagine that a more serious deposit commitment policy would eliminate some of the 'chaff' in the process (making projections more predictable) but that also might eliminate some buyers that would stick with it to the end (not an easy call, that, from the business side).

Finally, IF I were to guess, I'd guess that there may be a few more tweaks in the offing related to all of this but in any case these radical GCD date-shifts will wane in the coming few months. It's been a very strange ~16 months on so very many fronts, but I suspect that we'll see a notable return to some degree of 'predictability' on most of those fronts (including ETI delivery rates and dates) over the next ~3~6, albeit still with some 'hiccups and variants' along the way.

But heck, I know nothing and it's easy to guess!
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Old 07-21-2021, 11:10 PM   #25
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Let me throw a wrench into the presses.
At some point, ETI will be big enough to unionize.

The union is why I am comfortably retired and could afford to buy an Escape.
The union is why I kept a job for 42 years.
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Old 07-21-2021, 11:34 PM   #26
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And unionization has to do with completion dates how
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Old 07-21-2021, 11:39 PM   #27
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And unionization has to do with completion dates how
That things happen that are "unexpected".
I spent eight months on strike / locked out once. What do you think that would do to completion dates?
Thought some could use something else to worry about.
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Old 07-22-2021, 04:13 AM   #28
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I think the person who had a GCD pulled in by a year has since rescinded that. I believe ETI said it was a mistake on their part.
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Old 07-22-2021, 06:36 AM   #29
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Hi Glenn
I too have been a union worker in the past. Molders and Foundry workers and Amalgamated meat cutters and butcher Workmen of North America. I remained pro union throughout my municipal career. As a management employee we were required to “ take turns” being on the negotiation committee when a new contract was being proposed every one, two or three years. The union would open with some very aggressive requests. Management would discuss behind closed doors. Having three kids and an active lifestyle medical benefits of all kinds were important to me. The first year I was selected I had more pressing issues in my job than setting around a table arguing. Dental insurance came up. I said “I believe we should have family dental at no cost to all employees including braces”. That was the end of them asking me to be on the negotiating committee. When I was a kill floor butcher we struck when out wages were cut 42%. The first week after the cut, production and cutout fell off 45%. Imagine that. I picketed on Sunday night so I could listen to Dr Demento and Leon Redbone on public radio. And drink beer at a remote gate we had to “guard” behind the plant. Made some lifelong friends too.
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Old 07-22-2021, 06:54 AM   #30
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My date got pushed back till September 24th for my 5.0.
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Old 07-22-2021, 07:16 AM   #31
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I'm sticking with next May, 2022 to coordinate with the Osoyoos Rally..........keeping my fingers and toes crossed..........
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Old 07-22-2021, 09:16 AM   #32
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delays?

Our son has a very small stick trailer on order. He called the other day to see how it's going and had a nice discussion with a lady about delivery times. The discussion included delays in delivery of doors, windows and other items including aluminum sheets that were stuck in the Suez Canal. I guess everyone has some delivery problems.
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Old 07-22-2021, 01:55 PM   #33
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i just ordered a ceramic kiln they said they would start the build in Feb lots of things are backed up....
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Old 07-22-2021, 07:22 PM   #34
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My date is June 2023. That's a lot of time for a customer to ponder buyers remorse.

I can only imagine the sleepless nights in the world of ETI pondering how to minimize my pondering.
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Old 07-22-2021, 07:27 PM   #35
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My date is June 2023. That's a lot of time for a customer to ponder buyers remorse.

I can only imagine the sleepless nights in the world of ETI pondering how to minimize my pondering.
I’m sure someone would love to get your spot, Escape has nothing to worry about I’m thinking.
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Old 07-22-2021, 07:43 PM   #36
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Iím sure someone would love to get your spot, Escape has nothing to worry about Iím thinking.
I'm keeping my slot unless the stock market tanks in the next 21 months.

Or if a very nice current Escape owner wants to sell me their's at an extremely discounted price. )
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Old 07-22-2021, 07:55 PM   #37
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I'm keeping my slot unless the stock market tanks in the next 21 months.

Or if a very nice current Escape owner wants to sell me their's at an extremely discounted price. )
Sorry a very nice guy from Indianapolis Indiana drove over 2000 miles to pick up my 2017 19 today and he got it for a very fair price.
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Old 07-22-2021, 08:42 PM   #38
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I’m sure someone would love to get your spot, Escape has nothing to worry about I’m thinking.

I'm sure ETI is worried about customer retention on their waiting list.

Losing a customer even one that is two years away will be seen as a failure to execute by any investment group. Even if there's another customer standing there to take the spot of the person that just dropped out, its still seen as a lost sale. I have no doubt that there are plenty of charts and graphs at KV private equity showing customer retention for the ETI waiting list at 2 years, 1year, 6 mos, after build sheet signing, etc. I also think that their ultimate goal is to shorten the list enough to be able to sign the build sheet within a week or two of the deposit because customer loss after signing the build sheet is probably minimal.
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Old 07-22-2021, 08:45 PM   #39
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Sorry a very nice guy from Indianapolis Indiana drove over 2000 miles to pick up my 2017 19 today and he got it for a very fair price.
Dang it! Now I understand that saying about an early bird.

Congrats on the sale! or Sorry for you loss!
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Old 07-22-2021, 09:07 PM   #40
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RV manufacturers like Escape are reliant on availability of appliances and parts from their respective manufacturers. It's common knowledge that they are scarce right now. I'm sure that availability changes on a day-to-day basis. No doubt makes planning extremely difficult.
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