GM moving to all electric vehicles. I

[EdColorado]

Interesting article.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/gene...s-by-2035.html

[Steve S.]

I think that this might impact their near-term sales more than they assume. Would you buy a new fossil-fuel truck or car from a manufacturer who proclaims that they are getting out of the business? It would have made me think twice when purchasing my 1500 diesel last year.

We could get into a debate on here concerning the merits of all-electric vehicles, but where do the electrons come from? Not from wind or solar. We are killing nuclear (I am a bit biased, I admit). More natural gas turbines, apparently. Infrastructure concerns as well, unless they just intend to sell these cars to city folk and non-travelers. Here's where the Tesla owners in the group can chime in and sing the praises of all-electric.

Hybrid? Yep, own one of those, too.

Maybe GM just wants to be the new Tesla darling of the stock market.

[escape artist]

Originally Posted by EdColorado

Interesting article.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/gene...s-by-2035.html

Hi: EdColorado... By then I probably won't be driving. What are my oilco shares gonna be worth? Alf
escape artist N.S. of Lake Erie

[Centex]

Originally Posted by Steve S.

.... Would you buy a new fossil-fuel truck or car from a manufacturer who proclaims that they are getting out of the business? ....

Yes, wouldn't think twice about it if the 'fuelly' is the vehicle that best fit my wants and needs.

IMO no different than the 'risk' of buying a particular vehicle only to find the transmission, engine, or whatever, is updated or 'obsoleted' the next model year. I've had that experience multiple times over my vehicle buying decades, never suffered any adverse repercussions like lack of long-term dealer support, parts availability, etc, etc.

IMO GM (Ford, etc) is smart enough to know that continued positive support of 'old-tech' owners will have a huge bearing on their sales of anything through these transitions ... no-one will want to buy anything from a manufacturer that gets a frequently updated consumer report rating of 'poor' for support of any product, old or new.

Gotta face reality .... all manufacturers will be transitioning to other-than-fossil-fuels, each with their own 'transition plan / business model', some quicker than others, some with more-or-less 'teething issues' in that transition. I'll not let that scare me off of buying 'old tech' from any of them if that's what I want as long as it's available - I'll just judge the suitability of each vehicle (and my choice of manufacturer) on its own merits at that point in time, just as I do now.

IMO, YMMV.

[Brian B-P]

Originally Posted by Steve S.

I think that this might impact their near-term sales more than they assume. Would you buy a new fossil-fuel truck or car from a manufacturer who proclaims that they are getting out of the business?

Rationally, for a current purchase there is no reason to be concerned with what the manufacturer is planning to do in 14 years. Also, every manufacturer will have similar plans, because that's the direction the world is going. On the other hand, this is all about image promotion and not rational thought.

[sherminator]

Looks like the state of Washington is wanting to go all electric (new vehicle sales) even earlier - 2030. I noticed in the story that California has set a target of 2035 and British Columbia a target of 2040 to go electric sales only.

https://www.opb.org/article/2021/01/...WW-KV49z6xl_QM

[EscapeBoulder]

I image someone's done the math, but it would appear to me that we'll going to need a lot more electricity generation & transmission capacity as a greater and greater percentage of vehicles are all electric. Maybe generation & transmission is growing appropriately, I don't know.

[dstreight]

I keep reading how the electrical grid system in the US is at or even beyond its current capacity. Not sure how increased load demand on the existing grid will be managed let alone electricity generating expansion without nuclear that will be effective for long term stability and cost effectiveness.

Probably many articles written about same; just have not spent time researching.

[emers382]

Originally Posted by EscapeBoulder

I image someone's done the math, but it would appear to me that we'll going to need a lot more electricity generation & transmission capacity as a greater and greater percentage of vehicles are all electric. Maybe generation & transmission is growing appropriately, I don't know.

They will have to grow, unlike in Great Britain where I've been following power production daily for some time and commented in another thread about it. Despite the Brits bragging that they produce on average 33% of their power from renewables I rarely see anything close to that, not this winter anyway.

For example right now gas including "emergency" use only open cycle turbines plus coal are producing 52% of the required power at the supper hour there. Nuclear is at 19% but only 13.4% of the total demand is from British nuclear the remainder is imported from France. Solar is producing nothing and wind is at one third of the capacity giving them 12% of their current needs. Then there's the minimum 1.5% by hydro from a handful of stations in Scotland. Pumped (which has been lifted using power at a lesser demand time) is producing 4%. Then there's biomass at 7.4% which is primarily from wood cut, chipped, and shipped from North America at what cost of fossil fuels to do that?

They are supposed to stop selling ICE vehicles in Britain by 2030. Good luck!

[escape artist]

Hi: emers382...How are we supposed to tow anywhere when we have to stop all the time for a charge? Alf
escape artist N.S. of Lake Erie

[HABBERDABBER]

Many all-electric users recharge their vehicles at night, when rates are lower, and the power is there but not utilized....actually wasted in many cases. So a near term massive rebuild is not super critical, but likely a good idea to start now.

[ATHiker]

Wall Street values Tesla more than Ford, GM, Toyota and Volkswagen combined. China has recently ruled that most new vehicles must be electric by 2035. As emers382 stated, Britain, Ireland and the Netherlands will ban new gasoline and diesel cars in 2030. It seems that these auto companies either change or they will be stuck selling "buggy whips".

[yangstyle]

Originally Posted by EdColorado

Interesting article.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/gene...s-by-2035.html

It is an interesting article for sure. From the article," The company characterized its 2035 EV goal as an “aspiration,” citing regulations, infrastructure and other factors need to come together for the plan to be achieved."

[yangstyle]

Originally Posted by HABBERDABBER

Many all-electric users recharge their vehicles at night, when rates are lower, and the power is there but not utilized....actually wasted in many cases. So a near term massive rebuild is not super critical, but likely a good idea to start now.

I think they are going to have to build up the electrical infrastructure eventually. Here in Alberta, not exactly known for hot weather, there are times during the summer when we come close to "brown outs" when lots of people are using their air conditioners.
From what I understand some vehicles take at least 6 hours to charge so most people will be charging them overnight. Add a heat wave in there and it might be a problem.

[oldwave]

I expect I’ll be too old to drive by then
However maybe my kids and grand kids will breathe easier

[emers382]

Originally Posted by HABBERDABBER

Many all-electric users recharge their vehicles at night, when rates are lower, and the power is there but not utilized....actually wasted in many cases. So a near term massive rebuild is not super critical, but likely a good idea to start now.

Brian pointed that out in another thread but just think about when everybody is charging their vehicles at night, will there still be enough power to do so? What about while you're traveling long distance and you must stop to recharge, will there be enough power there and how long might the line up be, perhaps like when the 1970's gas crisis took place.

As I pointed out in my Britain power consumption they have pumped power which is using electricity at less demand cheaper prices to lift water to provide power when demand is higher. That's also at night when everyone is charging their cars. So when you can't get enough power overnight to get you to work in the morning it's not like forgetting to fill the car with gas but have a gas can on hand in the garage to add fuel to get you to the gas station.

[emers382]

Originally Posted by oldwave

I expect I’ll be too old to drive by then
However maybe my kids and grand kids will breathe easier

Me too, but the kids and grands will breathe easier since that CO2 in the atmosphere will be so low (sarc).

[emers382]

Well I was wrong on Britains power, at least in the night things have changed. Low power demand, the wind has doubled and it's producing nearly 45% of the needed power. I guess all those electric cars may now be plugged in.

[JeffreyG]

Two thoughts on BEV adaptation:

1) While the grid and generation capacity will need to increase, it won't be a fast thing. Cars last a long time, and almost all the cars being sold today are not electric. Even if the purchasing of electrics accelerates rapidly, the actual mix of what is on the road will still only slowly change over.
2) The grid demand is helped by the fact that electric cars tend to be charged during the periods of low demand. So they do one nice thing first, which is to level the load demand around the 24 hour clock.

[Johnspierce]

This is an interesting discussion, but I think it has very little to do with what a person will buy as a tow vehicle "today". 2035 -- 14 years out. Batteries will need to get significantly better in that time period. Right now, a Tesla with the largest battery will go as far as 400 miles if it is driven "lightly". If you put it under stress and drive it hard, that mileage will drop to about 100 miles. Clearly not a good scenario for towing.

I firmly believe "commuter" cars will jump to all electric very quickly; vehicles that tow will be the last to change over - there will be some very interesting hybrid examples over the next 14 years I'm sure.

Electric is the future for sure, but I don't think it's going to affect my purchase for a Tow vehicle in 2021.