How many Escapes

[edlynnrich]

Our GCD has been moved up to September 2022 and that got me wondering, how many Escapes have been built and how many are going out the door per week now? Just curious and ballpark guesstimates are fine.

Ed

[Brian B-P]

They built about 1200 trailers over all the years up to the end of 2015, then expanded the factory and increased production to about eight per week (almost 400 per year), so the current total should be around 3200. It's possible to get a more accurate count if you know the last three digits of the serial number of the last trailer built in each year from 2015 on (just add 1000 to the total of those numbers).

[edlynnrich]

Thanks for scratching that itch.

[Chamberman]

In the most current Q&A video Karl talks about storage fee's going up. In that segment of the video he says they have enough storage space to store about 30 days worth of trailers then he goes on to say that's about 90 trailers. So it sounds like 3 trailers a day is the current production.

[Brian B-P]

Originally Posted by Chamberman

In the most current Q&A video Karl talks about storage fee's going up. In that segment of the video he says they have enough storage space to store about 30 days worth of trailers then he goes on to say that's about 90 trailers. So it sounds like 3 trailers a day is the current production.

The logic is sound, but even if those are working days, that would imply about 750 trailers per year. That's way too high - it's far more than was said to be possible when the last expansion was built, and it's well beyond the 500 per year that is permitted for the "small manufacturer" category under which ETI was issued a manufacturer's identification as used in the VIN (Vehicle Identification Number).

[7Gentex]

Karl stated in one of the update videos that that the est. 60 inventory units for sale in 2021 would be about 10% of 2021 production................that was a few months ago though.


As many "move ups" that they have done - ex: "2021 @ 2022 prices" I would assume that it would be higher?



I'm not going to go back thru the videos to confirm..........

[Iowa Dave]

Years ago l learned about and realized the pitfalls of production possibility versus the real world situation.
I was in a conversation with the head of the solid refuse department in the city where I worked. There were 11 drivers and 10 Routes to be worked per day. I asked him how that worked. All 11 drivers had 5 weeks vacation. About December 15 they had a signup for every week in the upcoming year. 55 weeks of vacation so they allowed one person a week to be off. And three bonus weeks by drawing. Then you could trade weeks with a willing con worker for a two week vacation. It was a little crazy but it worked. So predicting production is difficult even at a simple level, throw in component supply, fluctuating demand, workers sick or hurt, storage, etc etc and it isn’t simple math any longer. So without a careful accounting along the way actual total production is difficult to ascertain.
Iowa Dave

[gbaglo]

I was reluctant to take the buy-out since I got six weeks vacation and accumulated ( or used ) a week of early retirement each year, plus my birthday and stat holidays.

Irritates me no end to wake up on a stat ( like tomorrow ) and realize I don't get the day off, like everybody else.

[7Gentex]

Originally Posted by Iowa Dave

................ So without a careful accounting along the way actual total production is difficult to ascertain. Iowa Dave

I would imagine that ETI has very "careful accounting"................

So, how many Escape trailers did the garbage guys produce?

[Iowa Dave]

Originally Posted by 7Gentex

I would imagine that ETI has very "careful accounting"................

So, how many Escape trailers did the garbage guys produce?

What I was referring to as far as production numbers was the way the serial numbers were done as where they combined all models for several years, built some on demand and some on speculation etc. Only the factory knows for sure.
My driver anecdote must have been confusing but I never thought about having to hire 11 people to cover 10 jobs just because of vacations earned by long term employees. I was only about 23 when I learned this and was pretty green. Later I did some pretty creative scheduling working with unions, weather, fluctuating opening dates, and of course budgets that wised me up. My goal was to get the job done while being fair, not creating discord and staying within budget. Made 32 1/2 years without anyone shooting at me. Must have done ok.
A garbage strike can cripple a city, recreational vehicle strike, not so much. “What? No Winnebagos, whatever shall we do? As opposed to “its starting to stink out there and a rat bit my kid in the front yard.”
Iowa Dave

[Allan Bornestig]

Yeah, Baglo, I have to take the coffeebreaks on my own time now.I think I know what you mean.

[Oldtimer]

Yep coffee breaks, lunch breaks , break breaks, nap breaks are all on my own time but then there’s the momma do lists that cancel them all out as well ughhhhhhhh


David

[Chamberman]

Originally Posted by Brian B-P

The logic is sound, but even if those are working days, that would imply about 750 trailers per year. That's way too high - it's far more than was said to be possible when the last expansion was built, and it's well beyond the 500 per year that is permitted for the "small manufacturer" category under which ETI was issued a manufacturer's identification as used in the VIN (Vehicle Identification Number).

It wouldn't be the first time a manufacturer produced more with the same amount of floor space. We did this in the semiconductor manufacturing industry a few times over the years. I was there in the 1990's when a new cleanroom expansion was built that had a particular theoretical output. Fast forward 7 - 8 years later and that same facility was running much higher output numbers than ever thought possible. Not only space but also doing it with lower headcount...

Sometimes outsourcing just one or two steps can have a huge throughput improvement. I don't know if ETI has done anything like this, but I wouldn't be surprised especially if they're constrained by space or equipment in certain manufacturing steps.

I seem to remember Karl mentioning planning to exceed the 2 trailer per day mark with their current ramp in one of the "Completion date update" videos from last winter. If this is the case then they would seem to be past the 500 per year mark. I have to wonder if they've applied for permits to move production higher than the 500 per year level for next year.

[YakRV]

Originally Posted by Chamberman

Sometimes outsourcing just one or two steps can have a huge throughput improvement. I don't know if ETI has done anything like this, but I wouldn't be surprised especially if they're constrained by space or equipment in certain manufacturing steps.

Yes, I remember Karl saying exactly that in one of Escape’s videos. He didn’t specify what in particular was being outsourced, but they are doing that for sure. Good call.

[Brian B-P]

Originally Posted by 7Gentex

Karl stated in one of the update videos that that the est. 60 inventory units for sale in 2021 would be about 10% of 2021 production...

That's closer, although it still results in an improbably high production rate.

[Brian B-P]

Originally Posted by Chamberman

I seem to remember Karl mentioning planning to exceed the 2 trailer per day mark with their current ramp in one of the "Completion date update" videos from last winter. If this is the case then they would seem to be past the 500 per year mark.

Interesting... but even 250 actual working days per year is pretty optimistic. Just taking 52 weeks at 5 days per week yields 260 days, but there are 10 statutory holidays in British Columbia, and no operation runs a full output, on every possible working day.

The exact number doesn't really matter, but production rates in the range of 600 to 750 trailers per year seem unrealistic for the current operation, and certainly were not achieved earlier.

[Lawrence A]

This is from "Careers at Escape" on their website. Certainly gives insight as to Escape's production ambitions.

Position Title: Production Manager

Location: Chilliwack, BC

Escape Trailer is a unique RV travel trailer manufacturer located in Chilliwack, BC. We have been manufacturing trailers for over 18 years, and after a change in management in August 2018 we are in growth mode searching for a practical technical lead to take ownership of the production process. This leadership role is focused on improvement and growth, it is a great opportunity for an Engineer with manufacturing/production experience focused on solving complex problems and developing both process and people. The role is rich with opportunity for either a seasoned professional or someone well on their way to a leadership role. The company President is an Engineer, there are no politics, we focus on solving problems and supporting each other.

We are currently a single shift plant with currently 90 people running 5 days per week producing 2 trailers per day. We have an exceptional backlog that keeps growing. We need to build the capacity to produce 4 trailers per day through waste reduction, engineering development, and/or more resources and more shifts. This challenge will create significant personal career growth for the right individual. It is expected that this role will be a stepping stone for the right candidate to take a strong leadership role in a new factory development initiative.

[oldwave]

Originally Posted by Lawrence A

This is from "Careers at Escape" on their website. Certainly gives insight as to Escape's production ambitions.

Position Title: Production Manager

Location: Chilliwack, BC

Escape Trailer is a unique RV travel trailer manufacturer located in Chilliwack, BC. We have been manufacturing trailers for over 18 years, and after a change in management in August 2018 we are in growth mode searching for a practical technical lead to take ownership of the production process. This leadership role is focused on improvement and growth, it is a great opportunity for an Engineer with manufacturing/production experience focused on solving complex problems and developing both process and people. The role is rich with opportunity for either a seasoned professional or someone well on their way to a leadership role. The company President is an Engineer, there are no politics, we focus on solving problems and supporting each other.

We are currently a single shift plant with currently 90 people running 5 days per week producing 2 trailers per day. We have an exceptional backlog that keeps growing. We need to build the capacity to produce 4 trailers per day through waste reduction, engineering development, and/or more resources and more shifts. This challenge will create significant personal career growth for the right individual. It is expected that this role will be a stepping stone for the right candidate to take a strong leadership role in a new factory development initiative.

Seems like a good move, with the back log. From the last news, it seems like they plan a different approach to building the 23 and this position may free up resources to establish a efficient manufacturing process. Moving from a labor intensive process to a trailer designed for a streamlined assembly is much easier with a new product. The question is will the high demand last ?

[Shearwater]

Our build date is 7/28/2021 and our last three digits on the VIN are 332. That would translate to around 570 or so, not far from the 600 mark.

[Chamberman]

Originally Posted by Shearwater

Our build date is 7/28/2021 and our last three digits on the VIN are 332. That would translate to around 570 or so, not far from the 600 mark.

Due to the fact the current production ramp was just beginning early in the year the remainder of this year should have a higher output than the first part of the year.