Shortages are now more prevalent.....

[cpaharley2008]

Covid is having a ripple effect elsewhere, shortages are now more prevalent and even Amazon is showing 2-3 weeks delay for some Prime items.....I hope Escape does not follow that direction!

[Jim Bennett]

I have been dealing with lots of big shortages for well over a year now. Most suppliers have gone past being frustrated, as all customers are well aware and they can't change things anyway. Even manufactures that a while ago came back to normal production levels have huge backorders to deal with. Appliances, building materials and products, automobiles and just about every product manufacturer is way behind.

We are ordering new appliances soon that will not be needed until later next summer. All plumbing finish pieces too. Better to store for a while than wait an indeterminate amount of time.

This will end, it will just take time.

[JeffreyG]

I know there are real shortages, but I also think some companies are overstating the situation to drive demand buying.


I heard lots of stories of all these shortages for the Christmas season, even including trees. Well, I haven't run into anything I wanted to buy (including a tree) that was any problem.


I also just put in a gas fireplace, and also an upstairs laundry. Bought appliances, gas and plumbing fixtures, a vanity, tools.......no problem.

[oldwave]

Lots of price gouging . Automobile dealers are asking outrageous prices. We are going to want to upgrade a truck next year. We will wait until they get hungrier.

[cpaharley2008]

Well, we just signed our build sheets, no price changes to worry about, just making the payments, May, 2022 pickup right before the Escape Rally.

[rbryan4]

Originally Posted by cpaharley2008

Covid is having a ripple effect elsewhere, shortages are now more prevalent and even Amazon is showing 2-3 weeks delay for some Prime items.....I hope Escape does not follow that direction!

The supply chain shortages are caused by many factors. While COVID-19 doesn't help, it's not the cause.

[Iowa Dave]

My Mom and Dad would, on occasion, talk about “supply chain shortages” I don’t know what they called them besides rationing during the war but to them it was just something you lived with or without. They had vivid memories of being lucky enough to be able to get something that was in short supply especially when they “needed” it as a gift for someone around Christmas.
They were thankful. So that’s how I look at things today, I’m more than willing to roll with it, many people are going without essentials and are having a truly tough time.
Raise your hand if you’ve rendered lard from a hog and used it in pie crust since the pandemic started. Sure makes a flaky crust.
Iowa Dave

[Jim Bennett]

Originally Posted by rbryan4

The supply chain shortages are caused by many factors. While COVID-19 doesn't help, it's not the cause.

In many cases Covid is the cause. Lots of manufactures and suppliers were shut down for a while. Even when they first started back, production was a lot more limited.

Appliances, especially quality units, have suffered from this. A nice, near $5k CAD KitchenAid fridge I ordered Feb 4 was expected to arrive Apr 12. This never happened, nor did it for a few months. My sales Rep finally got an email from his KitchenAid Rep 6 months after I ordered. It said that they were now back to full production and all the fridges they ordered they would get. He also added that however due to a huge number of back orders they could not give a timeline. I opted for at cheaper, but still nice, Samsung fridge.

I have had other suppliers say pretty much the same thing on Supply. Going into a local roofing and siding supplier, they have rows and rows of racks outside that are empty.

[marsman]

Originally Posted by Iowa Dave

Raise your hand if you’ve rendered lard from a hog and used it in pie crust since the pandemic started. Sure makes a flaky crust.
Iowa Dave

Iowa Dave,

I have not rendered my own lard for pies; however, as my wife is an exceptional piemaker I do take the opportunity to overindulge in all pies that are baked at our place!!!

[WillyB]

I represent a highly recognizable name brand of gas and water hoses. These have always been in stock items. They are now having 1-2 month lead times.

Another brand of commercial ovens that have always been in stock are currently having 6 month lead times. Some manufacturers are not even quoting or accepting orders because of the lead time.

The list of reasons is as varied as the brands I represent.

The list goes on and on and on........

[Chamberman]

Originally Posted by JeffreyG

I know there are real shortages, but I also think some companies are overstating the situation to drive demand buying.

As far as demand buying on the commercial side. At work our vendors have been warning us for the last 2 - 3 months that their prices are going up in the new year. Earlier this year I asked for price quotes on a couple of items and for one reason or another I never followed through on the purchase. Well those sales rep's followed up in the past month warning me that I should purchase the items now to avoid paying more next year.

Even the field service engineers coming in to work on some of our systems have been primed by their company to tell us to buy parts now before the prices go up.

We have made some end of the year purchases to avoid price increases though. I've made two purchases of spare parts this past week.

I believe many of these vendors will probably suffer next year with lower than normal parts sales due to pressing many companies into making unnecessary end of the year purchases.


Funny though, none of them have used the excuse to buy now because it may go out of stock.

[JeffreyG]

Originally Posted by Chamberman

I believe many of these vendors will probably suffer next year with lower than normal parts sales due to pressing many companies into making unnecessary end of the year purchases.

Funny though, none of them have used the excuse to buy now because it may go out of stock.

So I don't want to claim there are no shortages, but like I said, I think in some ways industries are milking the hype.

I mentioned before I had no problem getting plumbing stuff, appliances etc. The biggest purchase I made in 2021 that was a problem in terms of shortages was actually my Escape trailer.

My 2nd oldest daughter decided in summer of 2021 that she needed a car. I will say that the used car market was a disaster. I looked, and prices (in my head) we're just completely out of whack with what I was looking at (mostly trash).

So.....I bought a brand new Honda Civic EX Hatchback which I'm leasing to my daughter. And despite what I'd heard about the horror of the new car market, I found exactly the Civic I wanted to buy and I got it for ~ $1000 under MSRP. That's not much of a deal, to be sure, but it isn't gouging either.

Right now I'm throwing a set of snow tires on the Civic (daughter goes to college in Houghton MI, and will be doing an internship in Hibbing, MN) and I had little trouble finding what I wanted in snow tires and an alternate set of wheels either.

Again, some shortages are real (looking at you, ETI) but I also think some are being hyped.

[Mike G]

Jeffrey, my high school buddies tried to talk me into going to Tech as they were doing, studying engineering. Looking back, I sort of wish I'd listened. I didn't make the biology grades I needed to get into optometry, and wound up with a business degree at Ferris State (which we students called "Fairly Straight"). Oh well.

Being in display marketing these last 30 years, my supplier has never had the sort of problems they're now having. All of the fall season inventory was late arriving. The Christmas products never came in; one item we'd hoped to feature is now sitting offshore CA waiting to be unloaded, and orders for other items had to be cancelled to free up funds so they could obtain substitute products 'on the fly' and untested (market-wise) from US companies. Fall sales were historically low, and being on commission... well, fortunately the company cares about their rep force and chipped in extra so we all could survive the season. The company is just trying to break even and keep all of us in business.

They used to order products from China with 2-3 months' lead time, but for spring season they're ordering 5-6 months ahead and hoping it's enough (because it's the best they can do, short on cash and on a tight leash with the banks at this point).

Frankly, I have my doubts about whether the situation will improve. I mean, what exactly is being done to clear the bottleneck at the ports? AFAIK it's getting worse, not better. Then there's the shortage of shipping containers. And there are raw material bottlenecks affecting the manufacturers overseas, too.

[Iowa Dave]

Originally Posted by marsman

Iowa Dave,

I have not rendered my own lard for pies; however, as my wife is an exceptional piemaker I do take the opportunity to overindulge in all pies that are baked at our place!!!

We really like pie too. My three kids and their spouses are pie makers too. My son and daughter in law had pie at their wedding reception instead of cake. I have a number of cookbooks, mostly from rural church congregations. Excellent recipes. The one thing I regret
Is not buying a recipe book that was put together by a lady who had won a huge number of baking blue ribbons at the Iowa State fair. I saw her on an Iowa public tv show and she really gave a detailed demonstration on her pie making techniques. I have a Granny Smith apple tree in my orchard. It’s in rough shape since the derecho but gave us some great pie apples that store forever ( or at least till Christmas. Nothing like a piece of pie, with or without topping. I do not spray, so my apples are not all real pretty but I have a paring knife and a belief in keeping chemicals, especially on what I grow, to an absolute minimum.
Iowa Dave

[cpaharley2008]

I wish I lived closer to Iowa Dave's locale, he always seems to have a nice selection of fresh fruit and vegetables......

[cpaharley2008]

Just finished an Amazon order for toilet tissue, paper towels and 2 soaps....close to $70.....if you can find the stuff it is more expensive, supply and demand economics in place.....

[JeffreyG]

I am feeling a bit of a pie shortage.

[Craiger]

The problem is that we've gotten used to instant gratification. My parents went through World War II. My mother said that they were never without food, but they didn't have a great selection. The only time she went to the ration board my older brother needed a new pair of shoes he was two years old and growing fast. My mother set them on the counter and showed the workers how tight his shoes were. She got her ration increase for new shoes for my brother. Part of the supply problem is genuine part of it is people attempting an advantage claiming shortages and increasing prices.

[Iowa Dave]

Originally Posted by cpaharley2008

I wish I lived closer to Iowa Dave's locale, he always seems to have a nice selection of fresh fruit and vegetables......

Good morning Jim. Thanks for the kind words. My brother and I are putting together our seed order from Johnnys seeds in Maine. There are a few pleasures in life that I look forward to each year. The apples in bloom on a bright April morning and the sight of honeybees pollinating my Cortland. Stopping my mower as I pass the garden and picking a ripe tomato and eating it on the spot as the seeds and juice explode onto my jeans. Spotting a zucchini that hasn’t gotten away from me. And I talk to him. I say “There you are you little B…….d. And I open my pocket knife and end his growth. Planted 100 garlic in early November, maybe we will all get lucky next fall. Have a great holiday.
Iowa Dave

[Iowa Dave]

Originally Posted by JeffreyG

I am feeling a bit of a pie shortage.

The Ink Spots aren’t singing about A lady here, I think they are wanting some apple pie.
https://www.google.com/search?q=unti...ile-gws-wiz-hp

Iowa Dave