Wait times dropping - Will used prices too?

[bikezest]

So wait times are dropping/have dropped a bunch. You can order an Escape today and have it in 4-5 months. Start to finish; you would be camping this summer. Used prices were driven upwards due to long wait times and accelerating prices of new.

I think that used prices will soften, but more importantly, will new prices stop rising quickly, stabilize, or even fall? Many industries are beginning to see prices begin to drop. I just received a mailer from the local Ford dealership that they have 0% financing and some incentives, and driving by there today, they have a row of F150's on the lot. There is hardly a house in my town for sale that hasn't had a price reduction.

I can only imagine if wait times were cut by 60% or more as they have, that all sorts of downward pressure could begin to exist to move not only Escapes, but all sorts of goods and services.

The next year or two could be interesting!

[Donna D.]

Whether there's a price drop or stabilization has a lot to do with the cost of all the items used to build a trailer. Everything from the price of steel to the cost of fiberglass, windows, appliances, wire, vents, A/C, refrigerators..... well, you get the idea. ETI is still competing with all the other manufacturers for those items.

[bikezest]

Originally Posted by Donna D.

ETI is still competing with all the other manufacturers for those items.

And that will always be true. However, in my market, the local RV dealers are currently holding sales and discounting like crazy. The empty lots of the last few years are packed to the gills. One local dealer just closed down. So demand for all those Dometic parts is contracting very quickly.

I stopped in for something on my current camper and talked to a sales guy, and the new tactic is the pre-covid tactic of discounts and low monthly payments vs. you better order now if you want one, and of course, there's no deal as we can't supply the demand.

Escape has seen a 60+% decrease in wait time. When I placed my deposit in October, I was told November 2023, which moved to late April 2023. Order now in mid-February, and you can have your trailer in July. Those are pre-covid timelines.

[Rossue]

Many new car dealers were adding $5-!0K as ADM- Adjusted Dealer Markup. Since ETI has no dealers then perhaps they themselves have been doing the same in-house.

I totally agree with Bezos when he says to be cautious buying any Big Ticket items that you don't have to have right away.

Sustainability is to me a hackneyed buzz word, however what goes up also can and usually does go down due to unsustainability. That is at some point people just cannot, or will not pay these crazy prices.

[Ooshkaboo]

The fun is just beginning…

I get these notifications from the county government that due to a law, they put in place, every property thats value has gone up over 15% had to be reassessed.

I would hate to be on a fixed income, wouldn’t be nice that after a certain age they’d lighten up on taxation.

Now, they’re basing that on the boom, will they take into account the value of property is and will be dropping, about the same chance a unicorn will fly by.

[Centex]

Originally Posted by Ooshkaboo

I would hate to be on a fixed income, wouldn’t be nice that after a certain age they’d lighten up on taxation.

Statewide in Texas the school district Property Tax on a homestead is capped at the dollar amount due upon reaching age 65 (known as the age 65 tax ceiling); that's the actual amount due regardless of valuation and / or taxing rate; it can go down but not up unless adjusted due to owner elected property improvements other than maintenance / repair (e.g a new roof or siding of like-kind does not trigger adjustment of the tax ceiling).

Local option allows County, City, and many other types of property taxing entities to follow suit in respect of the over 65 ceiling, and many (but not all) do. My county and allowed other tax entities do respect the age 65 ceiling, thankfully.

There's also other homestead tax exemptions available for individuals over age 65.

My annual tax bill shows valuations, rates, and total tax which would apply if I were under 65, then the actual and much lower amount due as a result of the applicable ceiling. I'm grateful my actual annual Property Tax due, with the exception of one special-district tax exempt from the ceiling, hasn't increased since hitting 65. While Social Security does have have annual COLA adjustments my defined-benefit employer pension does not, that has been 'fixed' since retirement (not complaining yet, it's a great pension plan including zero-premium / zero co-pay / zero gap medical for the retiree even after Medicare kicked in).

But the Property Tax ceiling law does dis-incite building anything to cover or enclose my 5.0 as that new improvement would open the door for a readjusted ceiling for my entire homestead. So it goes.

Originally Posted by Ooshkaboo

Now, they’re basing that on the boom, will they take into account the value of property is and will be dropping, about the same chance a unicorn will fly by.

Again in Texas all property appraised values must 'track with the market', going both up and down (and we've certainly seen that in both directions over the decades). But tax rates (the tax due in $/1000 valuation) are not tied to any external index, so net property tax due may or may not fall when valuations fall (sometimes they do, sometimes they don't). There are constitutional limits on the year-to-year % increase of some property tax rates.

We're a state with no personal income tax, so Property Tax is is the most significant state tax burden faced by most individuals owning their home (along with sales tax paid by all consumers). And yes the 'breaks' described above apply to homesteads, not other personal or income-producing property.

Ooops, I'm probably in trouble for taking the bait and pursuing that tangent unrelated to the OP topic

[Iowa Dave]

I find it interesting to learn about all the different tax structures that people live under throughout the United States. I have no problem paying my fair share but I do not like learning that there are examptiona in the structure that allow some Large income businesses and individuals to pay very little in taxes or get breaks that are specific to their industry but not available to individuals. Not much I can do about it but keep on keeping on and saving money when I can.

https://www.google.com/search?q=yout...id:5u9rswkTfOs
Iowa Dave

[bikezest]

I was wondering if you all thought rapidly decreasing wait times for new Escapes may play a role in reducing prices for used ones and if, ultimately perhaps even stabilize or decrease costs or increase incentives to purchase new ones. And just like that... property taxes

[Mike G]

It's just speculation for us, since we cannot see the future for certain. But I think the used Escapes don't seem to necessarily get snapped up as quickly in the past 3 months as they were previously. That means there might be some dickering and price reductions happening in the background vs. asking price. We don't get to see those if they are occurring, though, so it's hard to gauge.

[Ooshkaboo]

Originally Posted by bikezest

I was wondering if you all thought rapidly decreasing wait times for new Escapes may play a role in reducing prices for used ones and if, ultimately perhaps even stabilize or decrease costs or increase incentives to purchase new ones. And just like that... property taxes

I can help you to understand this…the chicken is before the egg.
You wondered if one factor of demand would have an economic impact resulting in lowering the value of existing Escapes on the used market and possibly new pricing.
Auto pricing was given as one example, another was given to you as more increases in the cost of living to come.
The lessening of demand for new Escapes ties directly in with the rising cost of living, inflation and taxes. I understand this doesn’t affect some, but for most this is an issue.

Texas has the right idea, I still pay taxes on my 30 year old utility trailer.

[Iowa Dave]

As you note Mike we are not involved in the negotiations but I have noticed a “price reduction” or two of late. In addition sometimes the posting language has softened somewhat from terms like “firm” or “non negotiable” have, in some cases, been replaced with “I’d like to get or looking for”
I bought a boat from a guy once. I asked him how much he wanted for it. I don’t think he had researched his delivery because when I asked him what he wanted for the boat he said I’d like to get $900 or a thousand for it.” I said “I’ll take the $900 and counted out the Benjamins. He was a little flustered but learned a hundred dollar lesson.
Iowa Dave

[NEWYORKHILLBILLY]

we I first started shopping escapes. New prices were so close to used it just made more since to go new. today there's used trailers for sale that cost 12-15 thousand less than a new order and those sellers are still getting 10,000 more than they paid. I think how ETI handles the new market will have some to play on used prices. One can assume that if materials go down and their current drop in sales continues. There then might be some price reductions or incentives. Only time will tell. If this happens then the used market for 2021-2023 will suffer but trailer bought before will likely still sell for more than they were purchased for. of course, one can only speculate.

[JeffreyG]

Directly addressing the question, I would say that yes, used prices on trailers (and other things like cars) are about to come down. Big ticket purchases that are frequently financed are the first things impacted by sustained rate increases, and so I'm sure the number of buyers for new and used trailers has dropped.

In the car market it's already showing up. The used market is nowhere near as tight as it had been, and the new market is not letting dealers charge sticker plus markup any more.

Will ETI reduce new prices? I don't think they are anywhere near that yet. For new pricing to come down, ETI would need to have orders so far below capacity that the price decrease is better than eating the fixed cost on a trailer they don't make. Since they are still running some level of waitlist, they are not at that point at all. Doubtless they are watching the order board closely though.

Originally Posted by Ooshkaboo

Texas has the right idea.

I dunno, using 'old' as a stand-in for 'needy' seems kind of random. I'm sure there are a lot of old people who are on tight budgets. There's a lot of younger people on tight budgets too. As a group, over 65 people do have most of the money. The baby boom generation owns half of the entire wealth of the country.

I get the idea of "I'm on a fixed income." But......I've been on a fixed income my whole life. I've never been able to snap my fingers and just get paid more whenever times were tight.

If I was a young person struggling and unable to afford buying a house, it wouldn't thrill me to see seniors getting a big tax break on their large real estate holdings.

[Iowa Dave]

In 1995 the parks department I was working for raised the price on a round of golf about 7% after not raising for two years. I got an irate phone call from a guy who was not only critical but rude. I listened to his complaint as he went on and on. He finally hit me with the “I’m on a fixed income” line. And “Can you understand that?” I replied as innocently as I could “Yeah, but what is it fixed at?” Man that dude got mad. I was trying for a heart attack but only got a hang up and a call back to my Commissioner who still laughs about it today when we drink a cup of coffee together every Tuesday morning.

I also learned from my dad to say “No you’re wrong, the customer isn’t always right, in fact you’re wrong like over 50 percent of the people who complain.”
Somebody has to do it, might as well be me.
Iowa Dave

[Ooshkaboo]

Originally Posted by JeffreyG

Directly addressing the question, I would say that yes, used prices on trailers (and other things like cars) are about to come down. Big ticket purchases that are frequently financed are the first things impacted by sustained rate increases, and so I'm sure the number of buyers for new and used trailers has dropped.

In the car market it's already showing up. The used market is nowhere near as tight as it had been, and the new market is not letting dealers charge sticker plus markup any more.

Will ETI reduce new prices? I don't think they are anywhere near that yet. For new pricing to come down, ETI would need to have orders so far below capacity that the price decrease is better than eating the fixed cost on a trailer they don't make. Since they are still running some level of waitlist, they are not at that point at all. Doubtless they are watching the order board closely though.



I dunno, using 'old' as a stand-in for 'needy' seems kind of random. I'm sure there are a lot of old people who are on tight budgets. There's a lot of younger people on tight budgets too. As a group, over 65 people do have most of the money. The baby boom generation owns half of the entire wealth of the country.

I get the idea of "I'm on a fixed income." But......I've been on a fixed income my whole life. I've never been able to snap my fingers and just get paid more whenever times were tight.

If I was a young person struggling and unable to afford buying a house, it wouldn't thrill me to see seniors getting a big tax break on their large real estate holdings.

I’m speaking of those who are struggling, and there are many, maybe not many you are associated with. I am in an area where there are older ladies left on their own who couldn’t begin to contemplate purchasing an Escape.
They have something else to deal with, fear of survival. I think they should be more of a priority in this society than the now weakened generations of late.

Young people can work multiple jobs if necessary, I don’t remember ever purchasing a house that didn’t require my sacrifice and discipline.

[Eggscape]

On the Escape Facebook page they have posted that they have two trailers on display at the local RV show. A couple has purchased a 17 to be built and hopefully delivered before the end of May.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/9139...7796751673220/

[Grasshog]

Unfortunately, I am one of the campers that ordered my trailer in May of last year. The wait time was originally December of this year but it kept getting earlier and earlier and now I can get it as early as may possibly I am struggling with the three price increases, which in the end added 11 grand to my unit, I guess my timing was just bad still wondering which way to go I feel your pain. Thanks for the post.
The 5.0 is the trailer I ordered.

[bikezest]

Originally Posted by Grasshog

Unfortunately, I am one of the campers that ordered my trailer in May of last year. The wait time was originally December of this year, but it kept getting earlier and earlier, and now I can get it as early as may possibly I am struggling with the three price increases, which in the end added 11 grand to my unit, I guess my timing was just bad still wondering which way to go I feel your pain. Thanks for the post.
The 5.0 is the trailer I ordered.

I pushed our trailer out one more month to May and have held off on signing off because I have been paying close attention to used trailers, the specs available are changing daily (fridges), and between seeing what others paid in the last couple years and what I was quoted originally in late 2019 (woulda shoulda coulda) kept hoping the right used trailer would pop up. The new prices are astoundingly high, and those that bought pre-covid and even early in the price run-up can sell for more than they paid. I am getting more apprehensive daily about spending 60K with taxes and delivery for a small camping trailer that was just slightly more than half that when we first priced them in 2019. I get that there's always inflation, but the current rate pushed the reasonable limits on all RVs, not just Escapes. I have a truck camper for sale that I bought in June of 2020, and I would be insulted if I had to sell it for what I paid, so I get it. But I do think that something is going to change. Yes, the demographic that buys Escapes is probably older, but the demographic that buys vans and toy haulers and boats (fiberglass) is all the over the map, and the demand for those items, especially when needing to be financed along with a new truck or desire for a new house additionally softens demand. Maybe all I am trying to say is that I do not think that prices will keep climbing anywhere near what they were, maybe they fall a bit, and maybe right now is the absolute worst time to buy just about anything.

[Mike G]

I do think the used Escape (actual purchase) prices will go down somewhat this year, but not dramatically. A person might save a grand or two by waiting. Meanwhile that shopper will spend another Escape-less summer. It's not worth the wait for me to maybe save a little bit; I want to have a trailer that I can use this spring for some business traveling and this summer to attend a family gathering in MI. As of yesterday I have a purchase pending-- finally!!!

[cpaharley2008]

As they say,,"Time is money".....!